Archive for the 'Why risk cannot be measured' Category

Rare events

A lecture announcement from the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Dalhousie University said that “this year our Distinguished Speaker is Professor Srinivasa Varadhan,” who will give a talk on RARE EVENTS on October 11. The abstract of the talk says that “we often have to make a quantitative assessment how rare event (sic) really [...]

Accident stats don’t tell you much about safety

On April 9, 1992 the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum awarded the Westray Mine the coveted John. T. Ryan Award. The Institute grants the award every year to the mine that had the lowest accident frequency per 200,000 hours worked during the previous calendar year in Canada. On May 9, 1992, the mine [...]

Why you cannot measure risk

In 2008, Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO) that had been given very high ratings by the credit rating agencies collapsed. The rating agencies got blamed for faulty ratings. Once a mining association gave a coal mine the “Safest Mine Award.” One month later the mine blew up and killed 32 miners. The award is based on [...]