Archive for the 'Probability of being misled' Category

Reinhart and Rogoff story shows how important it is to check your indicators

This month two academic researchers showed that there were errors in the calculations behind the claim by economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff that the relationship between government debt and real GDP growth is weak for debt/GDP ratios below a threshold of 90 percent of GDP. Above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by one [...]

Armstrong Affair shows USADA uninfluenced by measurement

The US Anti-Doping Agency says it has “overwhelming proof” seven-time Tour-de-France winner Lance Armstrong was cheating by doping himself with performance-enhancing substances. What is the evidence? Armstrong was tested for drugs perhaps hundreds of times during his cycling career.  Every single test pronounced him clean. That is strong evidence against doping. According to the USADA, [...]

Beliefs, prejudices and data

When you see a bunch of things moving around in a flock on a pond in the distance, making quacking sounds, and occasionally becoming airborne, you do not ask for DNA evidence to determine that they are ducks, because you already have a lot of background information about swimming ducks. If someone told you they [...]